No warm-ups, no stretching, let’s get straight into what you are here for; The Picks.
All of these spreads and totals will be based on the ones I get at BetOnline at the time I am writing this post.
Baylor (+14.5) at Kansas State
Baylor is now 0-4 with losses to UTSA and Liberty. Things have not started out as planned for new head coach Matt Rhule but here is why I’m backing the Bears on the road this week. This team is finishing up their learning curve of the new offense and defense that Matt Rhule brought with him from Temple. Kansas State’s offense is not prolific through the air. They lean on the run game which eats clock and then they play sound defense. Baylor is coming off their best offensive performance of the season where they put up 41 against Oklahoma (Top 3 team). The one trend that makes this even crazier: Bill Snyder’s KSU Wildcats are 11-0 against the spread after a bye week. A tough trend to buck but all streaks come to an end.
SMU VS UConn Under 75.5
UConn is in a similar situation as Baylor where they have a new coach in Randy Edsall who is bringing in a new culture to an abysmal program. UConn, unlike Baylor, doesn’t have the same caliber athletes so rebuilds like this will take much more time. SMU is a program on the rise under the leadership of Chad Morris. They have a solid offense who should have no problem scoring points. UConn doesn’t have the offense to help SMU put this total over.
Notre Dame (-19.5) vs Miami (Ohio)
Notre Dame has been playing very well this season with a solid run game and much better defensive play from last season and now they host 2-2 Miami (OH) who’s wins come against Austin Peavy and Central Michigan. Not exactly what you would call quality competition. Notre Dame’s head coach Brian Kelly is still on the hot seat and letting this Miami (OH) team hang around could make things worse. I’m taking the much more physical team at home to take care of business against an inferior opponent.
Wyoming (-16) vs Texas State
Sometimes in sports betting you can find a really bad team and just bet against them all season long. This stratagy has burned me twice already on Texas State so why would I come back if I’m 2-2 betting against them? Because this Texas team is on the road at Wyoming. This means they are playing 6,548 feet above their normal elevation. Wyoming has a NFL caliber QB and Texas State’s offense is only averaging 12 points per game. Calling this fade route as it’s just a lot of factors going against a terrible football team.
Washington (-27.5) at Oregon State
Last one I will give you this week is Washington over Oregon State BIG. Oregon State isn’t a great football team and now that USC fell to Washington State and Stanford has two losses we have what should have been the favorite in the PAC 12 preseason now in the driver seat. Washington plays great defense only allowing 11 points per game to opponents. They also have a high-powered offense averaging 44 points per game. Oregon State is averaging just 135 yards per game on the ground but the Huskies are allowing oppenets just 100 yards per game rushing while averaging 3 sacks per game which ranks them top 20 in the country. This one has “blow out” written all over it.